NZ InfraWatch
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Defence Estate Modernisation
NZ Defence Force / Ministry of Defence · National / Multi-region
Multi-year programme modernising NZDF bases at Ohakea, Burnham, Linton, Devonport, and Whenuapai. Includes new facilities, accommodation, and infrastructure. 2024 Defence Policy Review identified $12B+ investment need. Budget allocated ~$3.5B over 10 years.
B
65/100 · Likely to proceed
Completion Probability — likelihood this proceeds on roughly its stated timeline.
Funding statusweight 30%
Delivery stageweight 25%
Election / policy riskweight 20%
Govt priority alignmentweight 12%
Project scaleweight 8%
Delivery agencyweight 5%
Key facts
- Region
- National / Multi-region
- Sector
- Other
- Status
- Planning
- Estimated value
- $3.5b
- Indicative completion
- 2034
- Funding status
- Part Funded
- Lead organisation
- NZ Defence Force / Ministry of Defence
- Election risk
- Low
Election risk assessment
Bipartisan support for defence following 2024 Defence Policy Review. AUKUS-adjacent investments may be scaled differently but core estate modernisation would continue.
Government priority alignment
HIGH — Aligns with the government's expanded defence investment following the 2024 Defence Policy Review.
Chronology
- 2022Defence Policy Review launched — first comprehensive review in 10+ years
- 2023National wins election; Defence Minister signals expanded investment commitment
- 2024Defence Policy Review final report: $12B+ infrastructure deficit identified. $3.5B 10-year programme funded
- 2025Estate programme begins: Ohakea runway upgrade, Devonport facilities
- 2028Major base upgrades at Burnham and Linton complete
- 2034Full estate modernisation programme target